As I write bitcoin (BTC-USD) has gone through the $16,000 level. Here is the chart after a pullback:
Moving the chart away from the right margin gives a better impression of this important move. When you play with axis you often get a different insight on the situation because today’s scale may not be tomorrow’s. This is clearly a parabolic move or as I see it, a repricing.
This below chart is 2013:
It looks like this on today’s chart:
The kind of asset opportunities that we all dream of are not linear and the only way to appreciate the up and downside is to fiddle with the axis.
So crushing the axis and replaying 2017, which is the pattern the chart suggests to me, we get the below. This is what bitcoin believers expect, hope and pray for, but probably not in that order:
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This is not fate but it is quite possible. Bitcoin will get there but perhaps not in such a vertical. On October 21 I wrote Bitcoin: Something wicked this way comes? Here I say a move is on and possibly for some geopolitical reason. Here was my chart:
I was calling a break out that then happily followed bitcoin up about 30% since then and the “geopolitical” move posited may have been revealed.
China is reported to be clamping down on its tech billionaires. Likely watching the U.S.’ own tech oligarchs and their exercise of internet control has triggered the Chinese government. Ant Financial’s IPO, set to be the biggest flotation in history, has been scuppered and the word is that the Chinese government is moving to reorg their tech billionaires before they get too big to be failed.
If you were a Chinese tech billionaire would you be buying bitcoin right now? If you are up for realignment, gold isn’t going to do you much good.
It’s speculation, but if you have a model and things go your way and the facts fit, you can speculate all you want until your model fails.
It must be considered, however, that these events just push the price along the inevitable long term path. Troubled oligarchs, wars, election mayhem, fashion, stock market crashes are all injectors of noise into a slow grinding upward trend. That trend takes bitcoin to far higher than it is today by a time when we will all wish we were younger and had put a lot more money into it.
I like my $30,000 chart. This fantasy will be my template for the facts to come. It will be interesting to see how long it will hold out for. The next stop is obviously the ATH (all time high) and $20,000 and that could be very close indeed.
Meanwhile the miracle of DeFi continues and ether (ETH-USD) is set for a run to $1,000. Every time I look at DeFi I lose my mind with excitement, which is not good. DeFi is experiencing an explosion of creativity and bleeding edge technology that in itself proves to me the vast wealth it will create, but I wish I could restrain my enthusiasm a bit. DeFi feeds into the whole crypto ecosystem and will propel ether and bitcoin to new heights and under the surface volatility, these types of developments, of which DeFi is just the current tip of the spear, is what really makes blockchain and crypto the next big thing… and here it comes.
Chambers won Journalist of the Year in the Business Market Commentary category in the State Street U.K. Institutional Press Awards in 2018.