UKRAINE – 2019/03/06: In this photo illustration, the Carnival Corporation & plc logo seen … [+]
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On Monday, the U.S. markets saw their biggest sell-off since the 2008 crisis falling by over 7%. There were 2 distinct factors behind the sharp decline: a continued increase in the number of novel Coronavirus cases outside China, and a collapse in crude oil prices with Saudi Arabia boosting production. Cruise line company Carnival has been particularly badly impacted, with its stock down by about 20% in Monday’s trading and by a total of 50% since early February, after the WHO declared a global health emergency. While the viral outbreak is making customers uneasy about cruises in general, impacting demand, the quarantine of Carnival’s subsidiary Princess cruises’ “Diamond Princess” ship in Japan, which is linked to close to 700 Coronavirus cases is also hurting the company’s image. While Carnival’s stock has seen a sharp decline, it’s possible that it could also bounce back strongly and potentially outperform as the crisis winds down. In this analysis, we compare the performance of Carnival stock to the S&P 500 over the current crisis and the economic crisis of 2007-2008 to take a look at where it could be headed.
View our interactive dashboard analysis on 2007-08 vs. 2020 Crisis Comparison: How Did Carnival Corporation Stock Fare Compared with S&P 500?
Carnival Stock versus S&P 500 Over 2020 Coronavirus/Oil Price War Crisis
- Carnival stock declined by about 20% on Monday, March 9th and the stock is down by a total of about 50% since February 1, after the WHO declared a global health emergency.
- In comparison, the S&P 500 declined by 7.6% on March 9th and has fallen by a total of 17.5% since February 1.
Carnival Stock versus the S&P 500 During 2007-08 Financial Crisis
- CCL stock declined from levels of around $34 in October 2007 to levels of around $14 in March 2009 and recovered to levels of about $23 in early 2010.
- Through the crisis, CCL stock declined by as much as 58% between the market’s approximate pre-crisis peak and when the markets bottomed out. This was slightly worse than the broader S&P which fell by as much as 51%.
- However, the stock did bounce back strongly, rising by over 62% between March 2009 and January 2010. In comparison, the S&P 500 rose by about 48%.
For more detailed charts and a timeline of the 2007-08 crisis, view our dashboard analysis 2007-08 vs. 2020 Crisis Comparison: How Did Carnival Corporation Stock Fare Compared with S&P 500?
While Carnival’s stock has seen a sharp decline due to the Coronavirus/Oil Price War crisis, faring far worse than the broader markets, it’s possible that it could also bounce back strongly and potentially outperform as the crisis winds down.